Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans close unchanged ($9.92 ¼), July ¼ cent lower ($10.13 ¼) and Nov ½ cent lower ($10.07)
March Soybean Meal closes $1.6 lower ($340.4), July $0.9 lower ($345.5) and Dec $0.5 higher ($342.0)
March Soybean Oil closes 18 pts lower ($32.50), July 17 pts lower ($32.89) and Dec 17 pts lower ($33.16)
Weekly soybean Export Sales – old crop 850 K – 1.250 M T. expected – new crop 0-200 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop 150-350 K T. expected – new crop none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop 0-35 K T. expected – new crop none expected
Decent degrees of overbought coupled with hints that Argentina may not be as dry as originally thought for the next two weeks had the bean and meal markets stumbling after new highs for the current rally were registered in the early part of Thursday’s day session. Initially beans broke 15 cents, rallied back 11-12 cents before finishing unchanged. Soybean meal saw similar action; breaking nearly $12, rally back nearly $9 and eventually finishing marginally lower on the day. Bean oil’s price action wasn’t much different but within a much tighter range.
Interior soybean basis locations ran steady to easier due to an increase in cash movement prompted by the recent rally. The Gulf basis for soybeans continues to look soft. Despite what appears to soft looking cash markets soybean spreads fractionally better on the day. The meal basis sees little change; maybe trying to firm marginally. Meal spreads ran away from recent strength.
Thursday brought us the first day of price action that is suggesting the soybean and soybean meal markets may have gone high enough for the time being. We saw an increase in volatility; meaning lots of intra-day price activity. In prior days while the market was moving higher we saw very little intra- day volatility. Growing conditions in Argentina will still be closely scrutinized as will the ongoing harvest in Brazil. I guess what I’m saying is that the complex could be ripe for further corrective type activity while still trying to sustain a longer term bullish bias.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/26
March Beans: $9.80 – $10.00
March Meal; $332.0 – $345.0
March Bn Oil: $32.25 – $32.80
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