Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans close 9 ½ cents lower ($10.55), July 9 cents lower ($10.74) and Nov 1 cent lower ($10.44 ½)
March Soybean Meal closes $4.3 lower ($380.2), July $2.9 lower ($384.8) and Dec $0.9 higher ($371.9)
March Soybean Oil closes 37 pts lower ($31.93), July 38 pts lower ($32.31) and Dec 40 pts higher ($32.77)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 900 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop 10-40 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Recent bulge buyers in the soybeans and soybean meal were noticeably taking profits today ahead of tomorrow’s numbers. CONAB will update Brazilian soybean production early in the morning. Last month they were at 111.55 M T. and the USDA at 112.0 M T. The average trade guess is 113.82 M T. The USDA will also update Argentine production. Last week BAGE (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange) suggested 44.0 M T. Last month the USDA suggested 54.0 M T. The average trade guess is 48.36 M T.
Old crop beans break out of the minor sideways triangle formation to the DOWNSIDE. New crop beans make new highs for the current rally but finish lower. I have to think most of the recent rally in Nov beans was due to the unwinding of the July/Nov soybean spread. Last Friday’s high was 48 cents over; today’s low was 29 cents over. Old crop soybean meal continues to retrace last week’s rally. New crop meal holds onto its recent rally but fails to take out last week’s highs. Like Nov beans its recent strength is about the unwinding of old crop/new crop spreads. Soybean oil continues to test suspected support at the $32.00 level (May). So – how good are you are you at predicting trade reactions to USDA reports? For what it is worth forecasts for Argentina continue to show a dry bias.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/08
May Soybeans: $10.45 – $10.85
May Soybean Meal; $370.0 – $399.0
May Soybean Oil: $31.50 (?) – $33.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.