Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 1 ½ cents higher ($10.29 ¾), July 1 ½ cents higher ($10.40 ½) and Nov 1 ¼ cents higher ($10.26 ¼)
May Soybean Meal closes $2.8 higher ($364.5), July $2.6 higher ($366.8) and Dec $1.2 higher ($359.0)
May Soybean Oil closes 63 pts higher ($32.37), July 63 pts higher ($32.60) and Dec 62 pts higher ($33.17)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 20-50 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
It was an interesting soy complex trade today; the biggest feature that I saw was Board crush margins rebounding 11 ½ cents. To start the day I couldn’t help but notice all of the news stories dealing with US trade sanctions vs. China and how they might retaliate. Naturally the subject of soybeans came up since they are our biggest buyers. Despite this soybeans started strong riding on the coattails of a stronger meal market; at one point up $7.00. Once that market faded soybeans followed suit. While that was happening bean oil started to strengthen. Soybean meal never went lower on the day despite the fade but soybeans did; they didn’t stay down managing to finish the day with only marginal gains. After the initial rally in bean oil it stayed relatively firm for the balance of the day. The bottomline to the day’s trade within the complex was the strengthening of Board crush margins. It makes me wonder that the trade might be positioning themselves for some sort of sanction China may impose against US soybeans while at the same time positioning themselves for better product exports in lieu of the short crop in Argentina (just a thought trying to justify today’s trade).
Elevator bids for soybeans show little if any change. Processor bids are the best ones out there. River bids continue to be all over the place. The Ohio River is showing some slight firming as well as the Mid-Miss. Illinois River bids are noticeably lower. Last night’s posting for the Gulf still looks soft. Soybean spreads showed little change all the way out to November but then gained ground January forward. Rail meal offers continue to be weak. Meal export offers strengthen. Bull spreads in meal were working all the out through the new crop.
Daily price charts show soybeans trying to rally out of the recent hole but given where they close vs. the high of the day the attempt to rally does not look very convincing. I get the impression recent lows will once again get challenged with the potential for the May contract to move down towards the $10.10 level if not lower. Soybean meal price charts have a bit of a stronger look to them as closes finished mid-range of the day’s high and low. $370.0 to $375.0 still looks like big time resistance for May meal. May bean oil is oh so close to pumping out a buy signal. I have to think closes over $32.50-$32.60 will be favorably received by the trade as it takes out a down trendline that has been in place dating back mid-November. Trade sanctions are supposedly scheduled to be announced against China either Thursday or Friday of this week. Too bad we don’t have Anxiety Futures.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/22
May Soybeans: $10.17 – $10.40
May Soybean Meal; $359.0 – $371.0
May Soybean Oil: $31.90 – $32.95
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