Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans closed 8 ¾ cents higher ($10.39 ¼), August 9 cents higher ($10.43 ¼) & Nov 9 ¾ cents higher ($10.48 ¾)
July Soybean Meal closed $3.2 higher ($380.7), August $3.0 higher ($380.5) & Dec $4.5 higher ($377.8)
July Soybean Oil closed 19 pts higher ($31.70), August 19 pts higher ($31.82) & Dec 19 pts higher ($32.49)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. – 200+400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Soybeans spend the day grinding higher from statements out of China to their processors to “buy American”. Overnight it was noticed that were Chinese inquiries for US soybeans August forward. That is essentially new crop and that why the new crop showed the best strength. Old crop meal continues to stand in but the rally is led by the new crop. Soybean oil goes along for the ride but to a much lesser extent. Last Friday the USDA announced soybean sales’ cancellations; 829 K T. old crop and 120 K T. new crop. I’m not sure it those will be reflected on tomorrow’s weekly sales report. If they are they should not be viewed as a surprise since it is old news.
River soybean bids edge higher from slow movement. Some processor bids ease with the easing of crush margins. Soybean spreads continue to show a bearish bias. Offers to sell cash meal, both in the interior and for export, continue to search for buyers. Needless to say most meal spreads show a bearish bias.
Charts suggest old crop beans (July) will test resistance in the mid-low $10.50’s. New crop soybeans appear in line to test the contract high, $10.60. The gap that was created with Sunday night’s higher opening, both old crop and new crop, has all of the features of a new higher leg developing. New crop beans/meal will continue to be the upside leaders until old crop meal can reassert itself as a bon fide leader. Today’s trade in old crop was step in the right direction but more is needed especially in the spreads.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/24
July Soybeans: $10.25 – $10.55
July Soybean Meal; $374.0 (?) – $386.0 ($392.0)
July Soybean Oil: $31.30 – $32.20
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