Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans closed 4 ½ cents lower ($10.18 ½), August 4 ½ cents lower ($10.23 ¼) & Nov 2 ¼ cents lower ($10.34 ¼)
July Soybean Meal closed $1.6 lower ($375.3), August $1.4 lower ($376.2) & Dec $1.6 lower ($373.8)
July Soybean Oil closed 36 pts lower ($31.12), August 36 pts lower ($31.24) & Dec 37 pts lower ($31.90)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. 350-750 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Politics continue to confound the soybean complex. As much as we think the US can garner better business due to the shortfall in Argentina and the labor problems in Brazil the on again off again pissing match between China and the US offsets that idea. The WH wants to play rough yet China says the US is not going to run rough shod over us. Supposedly the US has a group heading to Beijing to see if an accord can be reached so stay tuned this weekend for any new announcements.
The Ohio River drops their soybean bid by 8 cents. Other river bids appear to be steady to easier. Toledo raises their soybean bid by 5 cents. Processors appear to be fully steady. The Gulf shows a grinding higher bias. Soybean spreads ran steady in the old crop while old crop continues to lose to the new crop. The July/Nov registers another contract low. Offers to sell cash meal continue to look for buyers whether it’s for domestic usage of for export. Meal spreads ran mixed on the day in the first 5 contracts. These first 5 contracts of meal were noticeably losers to March ’19 forward.
On Wednesday I thought the July meal market was on the verge of cratering lower yet it managed to stand in. Thursday was an inside day of Wednesday. Despite the inability to sustain the move lower the price action of late still suggests lower prices. New crop meal, Dec, has an almost text book looking “head & shoulders” formation. It’s not saying much but July beans appear headed lower to fill the gap that was created one week ago Monday. If that area fails to hold another test of the $9.90 level has to be considered. The price action in Nov beans is not too dissimilar. Prices appear headed for the week ago Monday gap and after that we’ll look at the $10.00 level. Next Monday afternoon the USDA will issue its first soybean crop rating of the season. It should be pretty good; almost similar to the corn rating we saw this past Tuesday.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/01
July Soybeans: $10.10 ($10.05) – $10.30
July Soybean Meal; ??? – $380.0
July Soybean Oil: $30.80 – $31.40
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