Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans closed 19 ½ cents lower ($10.01 ¾), August 19 ¼ cents lower ($10.06 ¾) & Nov 18¼ cents lower ($10.19 ½)
July Soybean Meal closed $5.3 lower ($368.9), August $5.1 lower ($370.3) & Dec $4.8 lower ($368.3)
July Soybean Oil closed 26 pts lower ($30.93), August 26 pts lower ($31.05) & Dec 26 pts lower ($31.70)
USDA announces 114.3 K T. new crop soybeans sold to Mexico
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 557.3 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Crop Rating & Progress – 75% GE vs. 74% expected – Planted – 87% vs. 89% expected – Emerged – 68% vs. 52% 5-year average
Trade talks between China and the US have gone nowhere. There has been a similar outcome with the NAFTA talks between the US and Canada and Mexico. Each side suggests they are not going to back down in getting what they want. The bottom line is that the US goes ahead with its proposed tariffs at mid-month the other side has said they will retaliate with full force. Adding to trade talks appearing to be breaking down the weather seems non-threatening in the near term for soybean crop development. So here you have it – the US threatening to kill trade unless they get what they want and what appears to be a good looking start to the US soybean crop. Sounds like a double whammy to me.
A prominent Illinois processor stands in with cash soybean bid. River locations drop their bids in response to higher freight. The Gulf drops off once we moved into the month of June. Soybeans spreads continue to show a bearish bias. Offers to sell soybean meal in the domestic market continue to look for buyers while the export offer increases. Meal spreads trade in tandem with the soybean spreads as they to show a bearish bias.
July beans are targeting the May 18th to May 21st closing to opening gap at $9.97 ¾. That similar gap for November beans is much further away at $10.07 ¾. July soybean meal appears to be targeting something closer to $360.0. July bean oil is garnering some left-handed support from the break in beans and meal but it too appears headed lower; $30.50 if not it’s low at $30.15.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/05
July Soybeans: $9.97 (?) – $10.15
July Soybean Meal; ??? – $374.0
July Soybean Oil: $30.50 – $31.20
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