Soybeans Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Soybeans

Soybean Commentary

July Soybeans closed 7 cents lower ($9.94 ¼), August 7 cents lower ($9.99 ½) & Nov 7 cents lower ($10.13 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.3 lower ($365.0), August $2.5 lower ($366.5) & Dec $1.6 lower ($366.9)

July Soybean Oil closed 14 pts lower ($30.65), August 14 pts lower ($30.77) & Dec 14 pts lower ($31.37)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-800 K T. expected

I’m not sure who is leading who lower – are the products leading the way down or are the soybeans leading the way down? Bottomline is that the entire soy complex looks pretty sick. A general lack of demand (importers continue to look to SA for origin), decent looking growing conditions/forecasts and probably the biggest issue, the ongoing tariff rift between China and the US all work together for the sloppy looking price action.

Not much happens with the interior cash soybean bids. That holds true for the export market as well. Soybean spreads run steady to grinding wider. Offers to sell cash meal in the domestic market continue to look for buyers while the export market for meal holds on to recent strength. Spreads within the old crop ran steady to better while old crop still loses to the new crop.

The recent price action of higher in the night session and then lower in the day session continues. Dating back to early April July soybeans have seen interim lows against the $9.90 level; we’re here again. Maybe I’m reading the charts incorrectly but I have a hard time thinking July soybeans are much worse than the $9.80 level. The same holds true for November soybeans; as of this writing I’d like to think they are no worse than $10.00 – $9.90. If July meal can’t catch hold against $360.0 then the next level of support won’t be until $350.0. If that were to happen meal prices would be in a dramatic state of oversold. So for the time being I’m not looking past the $360.0 level. What about soybean oil? July either holds the $30.50 level or we look at the May low of $30.15. One item that I can’t help but notice – the soybean complex along with the corn market show similar minor degrees of oversold. That suggests to me that when the interim lows are made they will be prompted by weather considerations and/or agreements being found with the ongoing trade disputes. As of this writing we have neither.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/07

July Soybeans: $9.88 (?) – $10.06

Nov Soybeans: $10.02 ($9.98) – $10.25

July Soybean Meal; $360.0 – $371.0

July Soybean Oil: $30.50 ($30.15) – $31.00

 

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