Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans closed 15 ½ cents lower ($9.53 ¾), August 15 ¾ cents lower ($9.59) & Nov 16 cents lower ($9.73 ¾)
July Soybean Meal closed $6.6 lower ($351.2), August $6.5 lower ($352.8) & Dec $5.9 lower ($354.9)
July Soybean Oil closed 6 pts higher ($30.58), August 7 pts higher ($30.70) & Dec 13 pts higher ($31.29)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 644.3 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Progress & Rating – 93% planted vs. 94% expected vs. 85% 5-year average – 74% GE (-1%) vs. 75% expected vs. 66% year ago
Trade tensions are not going away. Weather for the developing soybean crop is pretty good sans a few areas that missed out on this weekend’s rain event. Southwestern Illinois, southeastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northeastern Kansas and eastern S. Dakota still come up of the “dry” radar lists. The bottom line is that the US soybean market is looking for demand and they are not finding any. Trade guesses for tomorrow’s USDA Supply-Demand update suggest minimal changes. The CONAB update for Brazilian soybean production is expected to see a very slight bump-up while Argentina soybean production is expected to see a slight bump-down.
Few if any changes are being noted in the interior cash soybean market. The Gulf market appears to be nothing special. Soybean spreads ran steady to a shade better in the first 5 months then drop off vs. Jan forward. Cash meal is still looking for buyers in the domestic market while the export market hangs tough. Meal spreads showed a bearish bias all the way out.
The soy complex has no friends so the price action tells us. So who wants to talk oversold? The 14-day RSI for July soybeans is 26.84 and for Nov 28.68. The same RSI for July meal is 25.11 and for Dec 28.42. No need to tout the RSI for bean oil as it has been receiving some very slight left-handed support. Daily momentum indicators read quite oversold for the nearby beans and meal. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some stabilization, minor short covering ahead of tomorrow’s crop data despite only minimal changes expected.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/12
July Soybeans: $9.47 ½ ($9.38 ½) – $9.68
Nov Soybeans: $9.67 ½ ($9.59) – $9.90
July Soybean Meal; $347.5 – $359.0
July Soybean Oil: $30.15 (?) – $30.90
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