Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans closed 8 ¾ cents lower ($9.27 ¼), August 8 ½ cents lower ($9.33 ¼) & Nov 8 ¾ cents lower ($9.50)
July Soybean Meal closed $4.5 lower ($343.2), August $4.3 lower ($345.2) & Dec $3.3 lower ($348.8) July Soybean Oil closed 6 pts higher ($30.14), August 5 pts higher ($30.26) & Dec 7 pts higher ($30.94)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 519.6 K T. old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – 291.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal export Sales – 74.6 K t. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – 23.3 K t. new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – <-0.2 K T.> old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected – 8.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-6 K T. expected
Although the soybean market showed the least amount of losses in the grain sector it was still another ugly performance. The entire soy complex saw new lows for the current sell-off. The rationale for the least amount of losses was some re-alignment of the inter-market spreads (oilseeds vs. feed grains). The break continues to be all about trade fears that the US and China will start imposing tariffs on one another. Washington said their date for enactment would be June 15th; tomorrow. China says they don’t want to do this but they are ready to retaliate if need be. My bottomline – it’s all about politics in the marketplace.
Interior cash soybeans are seeing better basis levels at selected river locations. Processors continue to stand in with decent crush margins. Not much happens at the Gulf despite decent looking weekly export sales vs. trader expectations. Soybean spreads were mostly steady in the first 5 months. Overall spreads remain quite wide. Offers to sell cash meal remain soft looking in the interior and at the Gulf. Meal spreads continue with the underlying lower trend.
We can talk about the complex being oversold but with the ongoing politics in the marketplace who knows what is low enough. The idea of good growing conditions limits intra-day attempts at short covering. Once again – how low can you go?
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/15
July Soybeans: ??? – $9.50
Nov Soybeans: $9.39 (?) – $9.72
July Soybean Meal; ??? – $353.0
July Soybean Oil: $29.75 (?) – $30.55
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.