July Soybeans closed 3 cents higher ($9.08 ½), August 2 ½ cents higher ($9.14) & Nov 1 cent higher ($9.31 ½)
July Soybean Meal closed $3.4 lower ($335.5), August $3.3 lower ($337.6) & Dec $2.7 lower ($342.4)
July Soybean Oil closed 7 pts higher ($29.57), August 6 pts higher ($29.68) & Dec 6 pts higher ($30.35)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 818.3 K T. vs. 350-650 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Crop Ratings & Progress – 73% GE (-1%) vs. 74% expected vs. 67% year ago – Planted – 97% vs. 97% expected vs. 91% 5-year average – Emerged – 90% vs. 87% year ago vs. 81% 5-year average
Oversold considerations allow the soybean market to consolidate. Breaking down below the $9.00 level for a brief period of time also had the trade thinking twice about pressing the market further. Now that sanctions have been announced, to be enacted July 6th, the trade is trying to figure out what is a reasonable for the price of soybeans. The sagging meal market continues to weigh on soybeans. Soybean oil gets some minor left-handed support from the continued meal liquidation but it too is a very soft looking market.
Other than the processor the interior soybean basis looks slack. Board crush margins have been rallying modestly during the recent flat price break. As of this writing it now looks like those margins are read to break down. That explains the processors willingness to stand if for cash soybean ownership. The better than expected weekly export inspections helped bull spreads in soybeans to rally noticeably off of the day’s low. The interior meal basis is trying to show some improvement while the export meal market is maintaining last week’s easiness. Meal spreads continue to soften.
Is Monday’s consolidation effort a signal that the soybean market has gone low enough for now? The still sagging meal market would suggest “not yet”. Consolidation at the recent lows is not a signal that we have gone low enough unless subsequent days’ price action verifies. Another 1-2 days of consolidation followed by a rally out of the hole would suggest we’ve gone low enough. As of this writing a resumption of negotiations between the US and China would go far. I’m not sure some ideas of too much moisture over the next two weeks would be enough to do it.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/19
July Soybeans: ??? – $9.30
Nov Soybeans: ??? – $9.52
July Soybean Meal: $332.0 – $348.0
July Soybean Oil: ??? – $30.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.