July Soybeans closed 19 ½ cents lower ($8.89), August 19 ¾ cents lower ($8.94 ¼) & Nov 20 ½ cents lower ($9.11)
July Soybean Meal closed $1.0 lower ($334.5), August $1.3 lower ($336.3) & Dec $2.1 lower ($340.3)
July Soybean Oil closed 72 pts lower ($28.85), August 71 pts lower ($28.97) & Dec 77 pts lower ($29.58)
The good news; soybeans finish 47 cents or so off of the day’s low. The bad news; soybeans finish 19-20 cents lower on the day. One would think the puke we saw early in the day session on Tuesday followed by the sharp short covering rally would signal we’ve gone low enough for now. We did see a bit of history making today; today’s low in July soybeans was the lowest we have seen for a nearby contract dating back to 2008. The meal market put in the best performance of the complex finishing just $1.0-$2.0 lower; $14.0 or so off of the day’s low. Soybean oil put in a performance similar to the soybean market; at one point down nearly 180 pts only to finish down 71-77 pts on the day. The sharp break was in response to Washington announcing another 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. China has yet to respond to this announcement. Even without the trade war nonsense (no one wins in a trade war) the soybean market would be under the gun due to good crop conditions and benign looking forecasts going forward.
So much for my idea that Board crush margins may be in line for a sell-off; they advanced another 9 cents today on the meal market’s performance. The interior soybean basis still shows the processor with the best prices. Locations elsewhere show mixed readings. The Gulf is almost stagnant. Offers to sell cash meal are showing a minor firming trend; it’s the slow soybean movement.
After today’s price action the consensus is returning to the idea that meal is the deal. If true it should work to keep the soybean market alive. Similar to corn it would not surprise me if the next number of trading sessions has the soybean price action trade inside of Tuesday’s range. Major sustainable rallies will probably not happen unless trade war fears ease and/or the weather turns foul.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/20
July Soybeans: $8.70 – $9.00
Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.25
July Soybean Meal; $328.0 – $339.5
July Soybean Oil: $28.45 ($28.25) – $29.25
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