Just My Opinion – Soybeans

July Soybeans closed 7 ¼ cents lower ($8.67 ¼), August 7 cents lower ($8.73) & Nov 8 cents lower ($8.87 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.6 higher ($333.7), August $0.7 lower ($332.8) & Dec $1.4 lower ($332.6)

July Soybean Oil closed unchanged ($28.94), August 2 pts lower ($29.03) & Dec 3 pts lower ($29.59)

Trade tensions with China continue to dominate the daily trade. Adding pressure are the good growing conditions. The forecasted heat for the near term is not as detrimental to the soybean crop at this time (as it could be for corn) as August is the critical time for soybeans. Given the timely planting of the soybean crop this year its critical reproduction time may be a bit earlier than usual. The bottomline – as long as the perception is that we’re going nowhere with trying to solve the tariff issue with China the trade will be willing sellers. Adding to the bearishness is the confidence behind acre increases on Friday as well as the reminder of more than enough old crop soybeans.

Interior cash bids for soybeans ran unchanged across the Board on Tuesday. Given what Board crush margins are doing, new season’s highs, any processor will give a look at any reasonable offer over the market. With that said bull spreads for beans and products were working on Tuesday. Given the trade tensions out there it will be interesting to see what kind of first notice day deliveries we see.

Just My Opinion – if the soybean market is going to hold we tapped at those levels on Tuesday.  I’m told there is an insurance price just below last Tuesday’s low. Will that level act as support?  Is there a rationale to sell November beans below that point? I will admit Monday’s close below last Wednesday to Friday consolidation level and the downside follow through today has soybean charts looking pretty darn ugly. Can the strength in crush margins, products vs. soybeans, eventually lend support to the soybean market?

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/27

Aug Soybeans: $8.64 (?) – $8.88

Nov Soybeans: $8.81 ($?) – $9.04

Aug Soybean Meal; $328.0 – $339.0

Aug Soybean Oil: $28.60 (?) – $29.50


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