Soybean Commentary
Jan Soybeans close 5 ¼ cents higher ($10.29) March 4 ¾ cents higher ($10.39 ¼) and July 3 ½ cents higher ($10.51 ½)
Jan Meal closes $1.2 higher ($314.0),March $1.2 higher ($318.4) and July $1.5 higher ($323.8)
Jan Bean Oil closes 18 pts lower ($36.74), March 16 pts lower ($37.01) and July 16 pts lower ($37.35)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 2.008 M T. old crop vs. 1.100-1.500 M T. expected; 396.5 K T. new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – 200.0 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected; 0.2 K T. new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Oil – 40.3 K T. old crop vs. 10-40 K T. expected; no new crop vs. none expected
USDA announces 132 K T. of soybeans sold to China
NOPA November Crush – 160.572 million bu. vs. 162.568 expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.338 billion lbs. vs. 1.381 expected
Informa suggests this past season’s soybean yield is 52.8 bpa vs. the USDA at 52.5
Informa suggests next season’s planted soybean acres will be 88.862 vs. last season’s 83.7
Outstanding looking weekly soybean export sales ( coupled with technical considerations (the inability to move through suspected support levels) allowed the soybean and soybean meal markets to bounce off of recent lows on Thursday. Soybean sales came in 500 K T. higher than the highest trade guesstimate. It’s hard to ignore that cumulative weekly soybean export sales are the best vs. the past 5 years and 11.1 M T. better vs. last year. Offsetting some of this is this past season’s great crop size as well as the great looking growing conditions in Brazil. Argentina is still slated to see beneficial rains beginning the Sunday and move into next week. With that said the push-pull continues – great demand vs. great supply.
The interior cash soybean market (basis) and the Gulf market continue to move higher. river locations are leading the way higher and the processor is not far behind. I question how long the processor stays with their current bid structure. If today’s board crush margins are any indication, down 4 cents or so, I would think the processor will pull in his horns in short order. Bull spreads in soybeans were working all the way out to the new crop. Informa touting the idea that next year’s planted soybean acres increasing by 5.1 million acres does not paint a rosy picture for the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal stay in the dumper. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally easier.
The near month long trading range affair continues for the soybean and soybean meal markets. Suspected critical support levels continue to hold. I may be wrong but I think the trade wants to see how the forecasted moisture for Argentina pans out. Soybean oil continues to advertise a possible top but confirmation remains lacking. I would not be surprised to see Friday’s activity trade inside of Thursday’s ranges for beans and bean meal. As far as bean oil is concerned it seems its daily trade involves fading the meal market whichever way it goes.
Daily Support & Resistance for 12/16
Jan Beans: $10.20 – $10.40
Jan Meal; $311.0 – $318.0
Jan Bn Oil: $36.35 – $37.50
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