Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans expire 9 cents lower ($9.87 ¼), July closes 6 ¾ cents lower ($10.09) and Nov 7 ¾ cents lower ($9.94 ½)
March Meal expires $3.6 lower ($323.3), July closes $3.8 lower ($330.6) and Dec $3.9 lower ($326.1)
March Bean Oil expires 2 pts lower ($31.85), July closes 19 pts higher ($32.58) and Dec 21 pts higher ($33.00)
Old crop soybeans plunge through the January lows – tries to reject the day’s low only to fail and finish below the January lows. New crop beans continue to honor the late December, early January lows. Soybean meal erases Monday’s attempt to stabilize/retrace the recent break. We did not make new lows for the current break but Tuesday’s price action suggests the current break is biased to follow through. Bean oil is advertising it may have gone low enough for now. Early in the day session we saw a 40 point stab to the downside that was quickly rejected. The rejection of the break came fast enough to suggest we’re low enough for now. The US soybean market continues to be saddled with monster crop potential coming out of SA and the prospect for a dramatic increase in US planted acres this coming spring.
Of the 9 interior soybean basis locations that I track not a single change was noted on Tuesday. The Gulf basis edges up ever so slightly. Soybean spreads within the crop year ran fractionally firmer and gained marginally against the new crop. Track soybean meal offers ran lower while export offers are unchanged. Newswires reports more bird flu found in Alabama – that’s three cases found in the US within the past month or so. Meal spreads ran mostly steady/mixed within the old crop while gaining ever so slightly against the new crop.
The recent price action suggests July beans may and try to find support against the $10.00 level. Failure there would suggest something closer to the mid-low $9.80’s. I’m thinking new crop beans will drift lower in anticipation of a big acreage announcement by the USDA on March 31st. Something between $9.80 and $9.70 appears to be the initial target. July soybean meal acts like it wants to trade down to the mid-low $320’s. July soybean oil is suggesting it has gone low enough for now after testing the $32.00 level Tuesday morning and quickly rejecting it.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/15
July Beans: $9.97 (?) – $10.20
July Meal; $326.0 – $336.0
July Bn Oil: $32.00 – $33.10
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