Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 2 ¼ cents lower ($9.53 ¼), July 2 ½ cents lower ($9.63 ¾) and Nov ½ cent higher ($9.62 ¼)
May Meal closes $4.1 lower ($313.4), July $4.1 lower ($317.7) and Dec $2.9 lower ($317.4)
May Bean Oil closes 61 pts higher ($31.80), July 65 pts higher ($32.03) and Dec 61 pts higher ($32.51)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 430.8 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected
NOPA Crush – 153.060 million bu. vs. 156.7 million expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.815 billion lbs. vs. 1.809 billion expected – less than expected crush yet higher than expected bean oil stocks
Soybean prices get caught between failing meal prices and rallying bean oil prices. I was a bit surprised at the strength in the bean oil as NOPA stocks came in higher than expected and palm oil moved down to 8 month lows. Meal prices succumb to slack demand despite scattered processor down time as well as a lower than expected NOPA crush figure. Weekly soybean export inspections were nothing to write home about vs. traders’ expectations. Interior cash soybean prices (basis) continue to show a steady to higher bias as producer sales remain relatively slow. The gulf market eases a bit vs. last Thursday’s posting. Not much happened with the old crop soybean spreads while old crop was a noticeable loser to the new crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal have a mixed look depending upon location as some offers ease while others firm. Export meal offers appear a little bit better vs. one week ago but overall still very cheap looking. Meal spreads traded similarly to soybean spreads – not much happens within the current crop year while old crop loses to the new crop.
Last Tuesday the soybean and soybean meal markets gave us minor reversals to the upside. My rationale for that was we simply ran out of sellers; the flat price became over sold. From Tuesday’s low to today’s high July beans rallied 31 cents. Today’s high was the first bit of overhead resistance that had been previously established and it held true giving us a minor reversal back to the downside. The same technical scenario holds true for the meal market. I’m not sure we can do much better vs. what we saw Sunday night as old crop supplies are more than significant for both the US and the World. If you’re listening to the chatter around the possibility of delayed corn and spring wheat plantings and it holds true that will mean more soybean acres.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/18
July Beans: $9.46 – $9.63
July Meal; $311.0 – $318.0
July Bn Oil: $31.75 – $32.40 (32.70)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.