Soybeans Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Soybeans

Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 6 ¾ cents lower ($9.54 ½), July 6 ¾ cents lower ($9.65) and Nov 5 ¾ cents lower ($9.61 ¾)
May Meal closes $2.9 lower ($313.5), July $2.9 lower ($317.7) and Dec $2.2 lower ($318.8)
May Bean Oil closes 11 pts lower ($31.58), July 8 pts lower ($31.85) and Dec unchanged ($32.31)
In recent days I have talked about inter-market spreaders being long oilseeds vs. short feed grains. That position saw some reversal action today as feedgrains rallied due to possible flooding fears for recently planted corn and the developing SRW crop. If the possible flooding does occur in these areas and it persists these areas will most definitely get replanted to soybeans.
The interior soybean basis continues to see a steady to higher bias. The Gulf continues to inch higher. Soybean spreads ran steady to softer on the day. I have to think some of this softness was dealing with 1st notice day at the end of the week. The interior meal basis continues to be in the doldrums/dumper. The export market for meal is no better. Meal spreads, too, ran softer on the day.
The recent price action for the soybean market suggests a minor correction within a longer term bear market. The shorter term look suggests an interim double top against the $9.71 level (July). November beans have a similar look against the $9.69 level. Soybean meal prices (July) have moved into a minor sideways between $310 and the mid-low $320’s. Bean oil has gone into a flat short term sideways hovering above recent lows. It will be interesting to see how the complex handles the upcoming weather possibilities – will it get more bean acres or not.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/26
July Beans: $9.59 – $9.75
July Meal; $315.0 – $322.0
July Bn Oil: $31.40 – $32.40

 

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