Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans close 2 ¼ cents higher ($9.65 ¼), Aug 1 ¾ cents higher ($9.66 ½) and Nov 1 cent higher ($9.60 ¾)
July Meal closes $0.8 lower ($312.5), Aug $0.7 lower ($313.3) and Dec $0.2 lower ($314.2)
July Bean Oil closes 18 pts higher ($33.02), Aug 19 pts higher ($33.11) and Dec 15 pts higher ($33.40)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 281.4 K T. vs. 300-450 K T. expected
NOPA April Crush – 139.134 million bu. vs. 145.739 million bu. expected
Soybean Planting Progress – 32% vs. 28% expected vs. 32% 5-year average – Emergence – 8% vs. 9% 5-year average
The soybean market garnered some minor support on Monday from slow South American selling as well as some inter-market spreading vs. the feedgrains. It seems as if the trade is ignoring the record high acreage intentions. Bean oil was the leader of the product markets as it found support from an improving palm oil market. I will always question the bean oil market’s ability to sway the bean market higher especially since the meal market is currently favoring the low end of its month old trading range affair. One would think given the overall supply of soybeans in the US as well as globally any appreciable upside would be hard to come by.
The interior cash soybean market has a mixed look to it as I see some lower basis levels along with some higher basis levels. The Gulf soybean market is maintaining last week’s late weakness. Soybean spreads ran slightly better on the day. The cash soybean meal market remains a dog. Meal spreads ran slightly easier on the day.
The price action in soybeans is still a month’s old upflagging effort. The price action in soybean meal is mostly sideways with recent price action favoring the recent low end. Bean oil is still advertising it has made a low; an interim double bottom ($31.12 to $31.22) in mid-April. The flat price rallied out of the hole, retraced back down to the neckline of the proposed bottom and is now rallying again.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/16
July Beans: $9.58 ($9.54) – $9.73
July Meal; $310.0 (?) – $317.0
July Bn Oil: $32.50 – $33.50
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.