Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans unchanged ($9.48 ¼), Aug unchanged ($9.50 ¼) and Nov ½ cent lower ($9.48)
July Meal closes $0.1 higher ($306.4), Aug $0.1 higher ($307.6) and Dec $0.1 lower ($311.0)
July Bean Oil closes 6 pts lower ($32.28), Aug 7 pts lower ($32.38) and Dec 4 pts lower ($32.82)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 5-22 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
If you weren’t willing to trade during the Tuesday night session you missed out on the day’s high and low in July beans. The day session was spent trading between that high and low – I should note the night time low was not really challenged. It was pretty much the same story for both the meal and bean oil markets. The soybean complex continues to be saddled with more than ample US stocks and it appears we are starting to see better movement coming out of SA and that keeps the complex under wraps. It should be noted that implied volatility for old crop soybeans remains quite low. Low volatility means a lack of uncertainty. The uncertainty is that we have very little right now to challenge the idea of burdensome supplies.
The Ohio River appears to be reaching for soybeans. Elsewhere soybean basis levels are sloppy looking. Despite this soybean spreads ran fractionally higher on the day. Offers to sell cash meal remain soft looking despite a couple of locations reporting higher offers. Meal spreads, too, ran fractionally better on the day.
Soybean prices challenge recent lows without any follow through. Soybean oil prices moved into sell stop territory without any follow through. Soybean meal saw new lows for the current move but here too no follow through was seen. Due to the lack of downside follow through I’m leaning to the idea we will consolidate at or near current levels, maybe some bouncing as we go into week’s end. Overall trade should remain slow.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/25
July Beans: $9.40 (?) – $9.56
July Meal; $301.0 (?) – $310.0
July Bn Oil: $31.90 – $32.65
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