Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 1¼ cents higher ($9.32 ½), Aug 1¼ cents higher ($9.36 ¼) and Nov ¾ cent higher ($9.39)
July Meal closes $0.3 lower ($301.5), Aug $0.2 lower ($303.4) and Dec $0.3 lower ($306.9)
July Bean Oil closes 15 pts higher ($32.09), Aug 14 pts higher ($32.21) and Dec 11 pts higher ($32.53)
The soybean complex spun its wheels on Tuesday. It tried to trade with the higher feed grain markets but it was a real struggle. Inter-market spreading keeps the soybean complex suppressed for the time being. Granted Monday’s crop ratings were a bit less than expected but it is still quite early in the soybean growing season. Until weather develops into a critical situation soybeans will remain the favorite short of inter-market spreaders. The healthy increase in US acres along with the more than abundant global supply is the best rationale for selling feed grain influenced rallies.
The processor still shows the best basis levels for cash soybeans. Elsewhere the soybean basis is still maintaining a defensive looking posture. Gulf values linger just above recent lows. The cash meal basis continues to suggest an imbalance of supply (too much) vs. demand (not enough).
Last week’s highs in beans and meal tapped at the low side of first level minor resistance. Since then we have been unable to surpass those levels. What attempts at strength we have seen since then have come on the coattails of the feed grain markets. With that said the complex remains vulnerable to further downside potential. Weather considerations/forecasts will continue to dominate the chatter within the soybean complex.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/14
July Beans: $9.24 – $9.40
Nov Beans: $9.30 – $9.45
July Meal; $298.0 – $306.0
July Bn Oil: $31.50 – $32.50
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.