Soybeans Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Soybeans

Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 2 ¼ cents higher ($9.06 ¾), Aug 2 ¾ cents higher ($9.11 ¼) and Nov 2 ¾ cents higher ($9.13 ¾)
July Meal closes $0.5 higher ($294.1), Aug $0.9 higher ($296.0) and Dec $0.8 higher ($298.0)
July Bean Oil closes 9 pts lower ($31.52), Aug 8 pts lower ($31.65) and Dec 10 pts lower ($31.99)
USDA announces 110 K T. old crop soybeans sold to Bangladesh
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 315.0 K T. vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Condition – 66% GE vs. 68% expected vs. 72% year ago
The soybean complex sees similar price action to that of the corn market on Monday; consolidation at or just above recent lows. The rationale for this is due to the recent sharp drop. It makes sense to me that we see some attempts at consolidation/short covering ahead of the USDA reports at the end of the week.
Trader expectations for these two reports (Quarterly Stocks & Planted Acres) do not suggest anything bullish but trying to second guess these reports have in the past led to some surprises. In addition to these reports the end of the week is also month end as well as quarter end. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that we will some of the spec shorts do some covering ahead of the end of the week. Like corn the trade is expecting to see some minor crop improvement on Monday’s USDA crop condition updates.
Interior cash soybean markets relatively quiet. River locations appear to have a mixed look as the Ohio River looks easier, the Illinois River steady and the Mid-Miss a shade better. Processor bids are inching higher as Board crush margins remain relatively firm (despite being down on Monday) despite the flat price debacle to the downside. Gulf values are steadyish looking as they hover just above recent lows. Soybean spreads remain soft looking within the current crop year – I think one has to expect to see deliveries at the end of the week. Soybean meal spreads remain soft looking as the cash meal market remains soft looking.
Charts look ugly and the flat price is not that oversold – short term it was coming into Monday while daily data not really. The recent severity of the break does merit some consolidation, maybe some minor upside retracement but all for technical reasons. As of this writing the known fundaments don’t really merit a sustainable rally.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/27
Aug Beans: $9.04 (?) – $9.22
Nov Beans: $9.07 (?) – $9.25
Aug Meal; $292.0 – $299.5
Aug Bn Oil: $31.50 (?) – $32.20

 

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