Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 8 ½ cents lower ($10.16 ¾), Aug 8½ cents lower ($10.20 ¾) and Nov 9 ¼ cents lower ($10.34
July Meal closes $2.4 lower ($334.4), Aug $2.7 lower ($336.0) and Dec $2.9 lower ($343.3)
July Bean Oil closes 30 pts lower ($33.43), Aug 29 pts lower ($33.52) and Dec 33 pts lower ($33.99)
Despite US carryout data (both old crop and new crop) coming a bit lower than expected World stocks come in noticeably higher than expected and that coupled with recent weather (moisture relief in selected areas) had the soybean complex unable to sustain rally attempts after the USDA report. The initial reaction to the report was lower but prices rallied quickly to challenge recent highs. That attempt to rally failed for about 20 cents. The balance of the day was spent getting 10 cents back from that break. The bottom line to all of this is that the entire complex manages to hold on to its recent rally.
Similar to the cash corn market the interior cash soybean market shows mostly a defensive posture. Movement, I’m told has been pretty god over the last there days. The Gulf market remains on the defensive as well. Nearby soybean spreads ran a touch better while the nearby contracts lost ground to the deferred contracts. Meal spreads saw similar price action. Offers to sell cash meal remain depressed looking.
Soybean and soybean meal charts are looking at 3-day islands. At one point during the day it looked like we were going to break down and shortly thereafter it looked like prices were going to vault into new high ground. Daily price charts are advertising a decent degree of overbought while the inter-day (multi-hour) charts have a mixed look to them. So what’s the latest weather forecast?
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/13
Aug Beans: $10.10 ($10.00) – $10.42 ½
Nov Beans: $10.25 ($10.15) – $10.56
Aug Meal; $329.0 – $345.0
Aug Bn Oil: $33.10 – $34.25
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