Soybean Commentary
August Soybeans 4 ½ cents higher ($9.89 ½), Sept 4 ½ cents higher ($9.93 ¾) and Nov 4 ¼ cents higher ($10.01 ¾)
August Meal closes $1.7 higher ($323.5), Sept $1.7 higher ($325.5) and Dec $1.4 higher ($330.9)
August Bean Oil closes 16 pts higher ($33.17), Sept 15 pts higher ($33.29) and Dec 15 pts higher ($33.59)
Short term weather considerations vs. longer term considerations or is long term vs. short term? This dilemma had soy complex prices strong early, weaken, and strengthen again only to weaken in the end. What we are seeing is classic weather induced volatility – how good are your weather forecasting abilities. It makes for tough sledding when one model suggests a particular forecast and the other model suggests something different. Get used to it until we can get the models in agreement.
Illinois River and Mid-Miss River have a firm bias. The Gulf continues to recover from last week’s selloff. Not much is happening at other interior locations. Interesting to note that spreads had firm bias despite the less than desirable flat price performance. Not much happens with offers to sell cash soybean meal – they stay depressed looking. Like soybean spreads meal spreads had a firm bias on Tuesday.
The recent 3-day attempt to retrace higher has an inter-day look of an upflag within the daily downtrend. The meal and soybean markets look like they are trying to walk up a waterfall. I’m not a weather forecaster but if I just look at what the charts are telling me they suggest we are supposed to be selling rallies. Bean oil still has the look of a daily trading range market but its inter-day look too suggests vulnerability to the downside.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/19
Aug Beans: $9.72 – $10.00
Nov Beans: $9.84 – $10.12
Aug Meal; $316.0 – $327.0
Aug Bn Oil: $32.70 – $33.45
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.