Soybean Commentary
August Soybeans expire 10 cents lower ($9.25 ½), Sept closes 5 ½ cents lower ($9.32 ¾) and Nov 6 ¾ cents lower ($9.38 ¼)
August Meal expires $1.8 lower ($296.3), Sept closes $0.8 lower ($298.7) and Dec $1.5 lower ($302.7)
August Bean Oil expires 55 pts lower ($32.98), Sept closes 21 pts lower ($33.42) and Dec 22 pts lower ($33.77)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 570.0 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Crop Ratings & Progress – 59% GE (-1%) vs. 60% Expected vs. 72% year ago – 79% Podding vs. 75% 5-year average
Rain in Iowa overnight sets the lower tone for the day. Some short covering did appear mid-morning when Iowa’s overnight rain dissipated as it crossed the River into Illinois. The “however” is that more rain is in the forecast for later this week. It is thought that the rain that occurred in Iowa overnight did make some soybeans. If Iowa sees more rain later this week and if it gets into Illinois one can be sure that more soybeans will be made. The latest from the NWS does suggest we will indeed be making a soybean crop this month. I’m told there will be another Chinese trade delegation in Iowa this week. This should be viewed as short term supporting issue especially if they suggest taking another 12-15 million T.
Interior cash soybeans are firmer on a lack of farmer selling. Bull spreads worked into January but after that spreads flattened out. Nearby meal spreads were supportive reflecting crusher down time this month. It is interesting to note that despite the idea of crusher downtime offers to sell cash meal remain depressed looking.
It remain all about how August rains materialize. If we can see similar rains occur to that of what we saw in Iowa overnight and spread further east without dissipating it will be tough to sustain much of rally in the near term. If the rains fail to materialize be ready for a rally to the tune of 30-50 cents. For the near term charts suggests $9.25 – $9.15 is low enough unless a rally materializes first.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/15
Nov Beans: $9.28 – $9.55
Dec Meal; $294.0 – $309.0
Dec Bn Oil: $33.60 – $34.45
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