Soybean Commentary
Sept Soybeans close 8 ½ cents higher ($9.30 ¼), Nov 7 ¾ cents higher ($9.33) and March 8 cents higher ($9.49 ½)
Sept Meal closes $1.5 higher ($296.1), Dec $1.9 higher ($300.0) and March $1.9 higher ($303.6)
Sept Bean oil closes 36 pts higher ($33.21), Dec 37 pts higher ($33.55) and March 38 pts higher ($33.89)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 453.2 K T. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected; 899.5 K T. new crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – 74.2 K T. old crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected; 68.8 K T. new crop vs. 60-200 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – 23.9 K T. old crop vs. 8-25 K T. expected; 3.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
USDA announces 165 K T. optional origin new crop soybeans sold to China
Minor concerns that recent rains in the western Corn Belt failed to give similar coverage in Illinois and points east supported the soybean market on Thursday. Stout looking old crop sales also lent support as this is the time frame where Brazil should be dominating the global soybean trade. New crop sales were better than expected but they still trail last year’s sales pace by 7.4 M T. We still have another possible rain system to look at over the next day or two but then it looks like another number of days with a drier bias. I’m not sure if next week’s Pro Farmer crop tour will be able to confirm or deny last week’s USDA yield projection (49.4 bpa) as it is still relatively early in trying to assess a soybean yield. The month of September is a better time frame for that.
Interior cash soybean markets continue to show a firm bias mostly from slow movement. I will admit I’m surprised we are still selling as many old crop soybeans as we are. That fact alone has the September contract holding its own vs. the November. Normally when the current time frame is in a “bear” mode Sept is losing to November. Adding to this is the slowdown in the
Delta harvest due to excessive rain. Soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal, for the most part, remain depressed looking. Locations that are looking at downtime are a bit firmer but that has to be viewed as short term. Meal spreads were soft upfront and firm in the back.
The soybean complex is still influenced by weather/forecast scenarios. The most recent price action is trying to suggest we are entering a minor holding phase with some possible upside retracement. Unless Illinois and points east get some decent widespread rain coverage worst case scenario is “holding”.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/18
Nov Beans: $9.20 – $9.45
Dec Meal; $296.0 – $305.0
Dec Bn Oil: $33.10 – $33.95
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.