Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 1 ¼ cents lower ($9.37 ¾), Aug 1 ½ cents lower ($9.41 ¾) and Nov 1 ½ cents lower ($9.48 ½)
July Meal closes $0.6 higher ($301.5), Aug $0.6 higher ($303.3) and Dec $0.1 higher ($307.3)
July Bean Oil closes 29 pts lower ($32.82), Aug 29 pts lower ($32.95) and Dec 25 pts lower ($33.40)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 275.4 K T. vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Crop Condition – 67% GE (+1%) vs. 68% expected vs. 66% year ago
Once again soybeans and soybean meal try to poke their noses higher only to fail to follow through. The early strength which was mostly during the Sunday evening session was thought to be the result of inter-market spreading; the liquidation of long feedgrains vs. short oilseeds. With that buying bean oil fades as bean oil was the strongest of the complex last week. Like corn the soybean condition ratings are expected to modest improvements vs. levels seen last week. Additionally; the spec trade is still considered to be a modest short in the soybean and soybean meal markets while being pretty close to even in the soybean oil market.
The interior cash soybean market saw only one day-to-day change; Savanna, IL, down 3 cents. As far as the week-to-week changes are concerned; the Ohio River off 1 cents, the Chgo market unchanged, Decatur, IN, unchanged, Decatur, IL, unchanged, Lincoln, NE, 5 cents better, Toledo, OH, 5 cents better, Seneca, IL, 6 cents lower, Davenport, IA, 6 cents lower and the Gulf steady to easier. Soybean spreads continue to show a soft bias although they ran unchanged on the day. The cash meal basis still looks depressed yet spreads improved fractionally on the day. Overall the complex’s spreads continue to be soft to wide.
It looks like the soybean market’s attempt at recovery may be coming to its end. Most of the recent strength here came on the coattails of the bean oil market and this market too looks like it may have gone high enough for now as it stumbles against its May interim highs. Soybeans rallied into what looks like decent resistance and today’s lower close is trying to suggest that’s it for now. The meal market has struggled over the last couple of weeks. Without meal it is difficult for the soybean market to sustain much of a rally.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/20
July Beans: $9.30 – $9.50
Nov Beans: $9.40 – $9.60
July Meal; $298.0 – $306.0
July Bn Oil: $32.40 – $33.50
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.