Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 2½ cents lower ($4.31), May 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.46) and July 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.61 ½)
March KC Wheat closes ¼ cent higher ($4.52 ¼), May½ cent higher ($4.64 ¼) and July ¼ cent higher ($4.75 ½)
Inter-market spreading along with some flat price profit taking brings us an inside day following Tuesday’s run to new highs for the current rally. New news for the US wheat markets was slight on Wednesday. A minor upside retracement in the US dollar prompted some of the profit taking. World wheat markets haven’t really responded in kind to the rally in the US futures. It will be interesting to see the monthly winter wheat condition updates in early February given the recent moisture in the central and southern Plains.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. The export basis has a firm tone but it too is not setting the world on fire. Chgo spreads have been on the defensive for the past 2 ½ weeks (the flat price has been rallying for the past 2 ½ – 3 weeks). KC spreads continue to go nowhere fast maintaining an overall flat to depressed look.
Wednesday’s inside day does not suggest the flat price rally is over. It does suggest its time to digest the current rally and that means further consolidation with some minor correction.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/19
March Chgo Wheat: $4.20 – $4.38
March KC Wheat: $4.41 – $4.52 ($4.56)
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