Wheat Commentary
Dec Chgo Wheat closes 2 ¾ cents lower ($4.30 ½), March 2 ¾ cents lower ($4.49 ½) and July 3 ¼ cents lower ($4.75 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closes 2 cents lower ($4.26 ¼), March 2 cents lower ($4.44 ½) and July 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.76 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Despite some ugly looking data for the USDA the US wheat market tried to rally with the rest of the AG sector but to no avail. Give the numbers the USDA gave us (see USDA October attachment) US wheat futures should remain on the short side of most, if not all, inter-market Ag spreads.
Interior cash wheat markets appear to be dead in water. Not much is happening with export. Chgo spreads ran fractionally better as the balance sheet for SRW actually saw a lower carryout projection vs. HRW and HRS. KC spreads appear more than happy to flatline just above contract lows.
Flat price wheat tries to stabilize due to strength elsewhere within the Ag sector but in the end I think the description “struggling” suits this market the best. We can talk about the spec trade being too short and that may lead to further attempts at stabilization but in the end this market still appears to be destined for lower prices.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/13
Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.22 (?) – $4.38
Dec KC Wheat: $4.20 (?) – $4.32
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.