Wheat Commentary
Dec Chgo Wheat closes 2 ½ cents lower ($4.24 ¾), March 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.43) and July 3 ¼ cents lower ($4.70 ¾)
Dec KC Wheat closes 3 ½ cents lower ($4.21 ¾), March 3¼ cents lower ($4.39 ¾) and July 2 ½ cents lower ($4.72 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 315.3 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Weekly Winter Wheat Ratings & Progress – 52% GE vs. 59% expected vs. 58% year ago – 84% planted vs. 85% expected vs. 87% 5-year average – 65% emerged vs. 68% 5-year average
The MO for wheat trading continues to be “When in doubt sell some wheat”. Dec Chgo wheat matched its contract low on Monday and the ensuing bounce was less than inspiring. Dec KC wheat came within 1 cent of its contract low and its bounce too was less than inspiring. The slack trade in US wheat futures continues to come from a slow export market. Weekly wheat export inspections continue to be less than inspiring. Overall just an uninspiring market.
I don’t know if it was a misprint but Cincinnati is now paying option price for SRW (up 25 cents). All other locations for SRW remain slow and low. SRW at the Gulf had a bump up mid-late last week and their it sits. Interior HRW continues to suggest steady to firm while the Gulf for HRW remains firm. The “however” to all of this is that the respective spread markets, Chgo and KC, continue to show much at all.
Contract lows were challenged on Monday and so far have held. The spec trade has a pretty strong short bias. Tomorrow is month end – will we see any short covering? If we do it will be technical in nature not fundamental.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/31
Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.21 ½ (?) – $4.33
Dec KC Wheat: $4.19 (?) – $4.30
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.