Wheat Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 5 cents higher ($4.33 ¼), May 3¾ cents higher ($4.47) and July 3 cents higher ($4.61 ½)
March KC Wheat closes 1 ¾ cents higher ($4.44 ¾), May 2 cents higher ($4.57) and July 2 cents higher ($4.68 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 276.2 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Despite paltry looking weekly export inspections flat price wheat, led by Chgo, moves higher on Monday. The friendly influence was the US dollar continuing to work lower. The buying in Chgo continues to be spec short covering. It is my thought the spec in the KC trade is already a light long.
Interior cash wheat markets continue to show a steady to firmer trend. This holds true for the export markets as well. Given what export shipments have been of late I have to think most of the basis strength is mostly due to a lack of movement. Chgo spreads had been trending lower for the past two weeks – today’s action along with some technical considerations suggests that trend is now over. KC spreads continue to be quiet not showing much volatility at all when compared to Chgo.
Today’s flat price action is suggesting last week’s sell-off on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday was just a correction within the uptrend that started in late December. With that said March Chgo wheat is still targeting the mid-October high of $4.45-$4.46. The KC wheat picture is not as strong looking as Chgo’s. Then again on the initial rally started in late December the KC market led the way higher. If KC cannot pick up the leadership role I have to question the stronger looking Chgo market. I will continue to use shorter term inter-day technical indicators for my day-to-day trading rather than (in this instance) chasing the Chgo rally.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/24
March Chgo Wheat: $4.26 – $4.38 (?)
March KC Wheat: $4.40 – $4.51

 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.