Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 1 cent lower ($4.19 ½), July¼ cents lower ($4.46 ½) and Dec unchanged ($4.77 ½)
March KC Wheat closes ¾ cent higher ($4.20), July 1 ½ cents higher ($4.49 ¾) and Dec 1 cent higher ($4.86 ¼)
Wheat futures go nowhere fast. Trade chatter continues to talk about the developing drought conditions in the central southern US Plains as well as US origin getting more competitive in selected areas of global export. For the last few days the flat price has tried to rally in the early going of each day’s trade only to fail to follow through. Speculation asks the question, “Are we building a base or is it just the pause that refreshes before we move lower again?”
Interior cash what markets remain relatively quiet. Not much happens with SRW bids while HRW bids have a firm looking undertone. Gulf levels for both varieties see little if any change. Chgo spreads run fractionally easier on the day as do KC spreads.
The recent attempts to rally out of the hole are lacking in conviction/character. With today putting out a new high (only fractionally) for the current attempt to rally and closing with a bias to the day’s low the price action is taking on the look of an upflag. It seems like that has been the price action pattern that has happening for the past couple of months. The flat price gets into a minor oversold state, flags higher for few days and then rolls over. Is this time going to be any different??
Daily Support & Resistance for 12/20
March Chgo Wheat: $4.14 – $4.26
March KC Wheat: $4.14 – $4.26
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.