Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 6 ½ cents lower ($4.26 ¾), May 6 cents lower ($4.41) and July 5 ½ cents lower ($4.56)
March KC Wheat closes 3 cents lower ($4.41 ¾), May 3 ¼ cents lower ($4.53 ¾) and July 3 cents lower ($4.65 ½)
Flat price wheat tied to buck the lower trend from corn and soybeans but eventually this market too gave up the ship. The trade cited a continued soft looking US dollar but it seemed as if that fell on deaf ears. For as strong as Chgo wheat looked going home Monday night it now looks that weak. KC wheat managed to hold its own vs. Chgo whet but it too has the appearance of struggling. Fundamental (demand) wheat news for US wheat remains thin at this time.
No change is being seen in the interior cash wheat markets but they are holding onto recent firming action. A similar scenario exists for the export market. Chgo wheat spreads eased back out following Monday’s attempt to reverse higher. KC spreads continue to be a snoozer. If anything is there it is old crop long to new crop as it takes its cue from the lower acreage data reported earlier this month.
Chgo wheat scores an interim reversal to the downside on Tuesday; an outside day closing below the previous day’s low. The KC price action resembles a very short term upflag. Making a long story short – after the price actin of the last two days wheat prices appear to be in a very precarious position – risk to the downside appears greater than risk to the upside.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/25
March Chgo Wheat: $4.22 ($4.19) – $4.32
March KC Wheat: $4.34 – $4.48
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.