Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 14 ¼ cents higher ($4.60 ½), July 13 ¼ cents higher ($4.86 ¼) and Dec 12 cents higher ($5.18 ¾)
March KC Wheat closes 12 cents higher ($4.81), July 12 cents higher ($5.11 ½) and Dec 12 cents higher ($5.45 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Charge!!! Wheat prices move into new high ground for the current rally. Technical considerations coupled with the ongoing concerns over the wintering US HRW crop was the impetus for furthering the rally. It seems as if the spec shorts are falling all over themselves to get covered and I wouldn’t be surprised if the KC trader is now a net long. No one is looking for much of change on the USDA Supply-Demand data that is scheduled for release tomorrow mid-morning. This holds true for both domestic and World data. If there is a change of note (either way) expect to see the market react accordingly.
Millers are finding it difficult to source good protein wheat. Export markets have gone slack with the current flat price rally. Wheat spreads, both Chgo and KC remain sideways.
Short term inter-day indicators do register a modest degree of overbought. Daily indicators do not. For what it is worth the recent downside correction Chgo wheat saw now has prices looking at a test of the mid-$4.70’s. The KC price action is suggesting a test of $5.00 may be near at hand.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/08
March Chgo Wheat: $4.52 – $4.70
March KC Wheat: $4.72 – $4.90
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.