Wheat Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary

March Chgo Wheat closes 8 ½ cents lower ($4.49 ¼), July 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.78 ¼) and Dec 6½ cents lower ($5.16 ¾)

March KC Wheat closes 6 ¾ cents lower ($4.71 ¾), July 5 ¾ cents lower ($5.04 ¾) and Dec 5¼ cents lower ($5.43)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 422.3 K T. vs. 325-575 K T. expected

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat

Monday night flat price wheat tried to run higher with the markets that were being influenced by Argentine growing conditions. Selected areas of the eastern HRW did see some moisture over the weekend. The latest forecasts suggest better moisture will try to get further west into the HRW growing areas. It appeared to me that was enough to squelch the latest attempt to move wheat prices higher.

Interior cash wheat prices remain quiet; both for SRW and HRW. Export prices for Chgo type wheat continue to be a non-event. Export prices for KC type wheat continue to show a firm bias. Overall wheat spreads remain sloppy looking meaning a downwards/widening bias. Wheat spreads continue to suggest the lack of market making business for US wheat as well as VSR calculations suggesting spreads will stay wide.

Chgo wheat prices close below last week’s low – not very inspiring for ownership. KC prices register an outside day that involved new highs for the rally yet closing below the previous day’s low – not very inspiring for ownership. Prior to today’s price action wheat futures had been in a consolidation mode at their recent upper end. Today’s price action is strongly suggesting we may be entering a correction mode.

Daily Support & Resistance for 02/21

March Chgo Wheat: $4.42 – $4.57

March KC Wheat: $4.63 – $4.79

 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.