Wheat Commentary
May Chgo Wheat closes 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.49), July 5 cents lower ($4.66 ½) and Dec 4 ¼ cents lower ($5.04 ¾)
May KC Wheat closes 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.64), July 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.83 ½) and Dec 4 ¼ cents lower ($5.25)
The perception that the bleeding has stopped with HRW ratings coupled with better looking weather for the developing crop (not all areas) has US wheat futures continuing on the defensive Tuesday. Adding to this are benign looking guesstimates for the upcoming USDA Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting reports. To date the US has been unable to garner any new demand. Given the reports on our competitors’ crop conditions it doesn’t look like we’ll see any new improved demand anytime soon.
The interior cash wheat markets remain quiet with few if any changes. The same holds true for the export basis. Chgo wheat spreads ran fractionally softer while KC spreads ran mostly unchanged while staying wide.
It needs to be noted that flat price wheat registered its lowest close dating back to late January despite not registering new lows for the move – this is not good news. With that said I have to be open to the prospect that July KC wheat could challenge suspected support at the $4.76 level and July Chgo challenge its suspected support closer to the $4.60 level.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/28
July Chgo Wheat: $4.60 – $4.72
July KC Wheat: $4.78 – $4.89
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.