Wheat Commentary
May Chgo Wheat closes 6 ¾ cents lower ($5.07 ¾), July 4 cents lower ($5.06 ½) and Dec 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.44)
May KC Wheat closes 4 ½ cents lower ($5.07 ½), July 4 ½ cents lower ($5.27) and Dec 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.70 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 35.2 K T. old crop vs. 0-350 K T. expected – 48.2 K T. new crop vs. 200-350 K T. expected
Highlights of the USDA Supply-Demand Report – US Old Crop – increases domestic usage 9 million bu., lowers export 15 million bu., increases carryout 6 million bu. – World Old Crop – increases total usage 680 K T., reduces carryout 760 K T. – US New Crop – lowers total supply by 49 million bu., increases total usage by 67 million bu., lowers carryout by 115 million bu. YOY – World New Crop – lowers total production by 11.99 M T., Increases total usage by 10.76 M T. yet they lower the carryout by 6.13 M T. (once again I don’t understand)
Poor blankety-blank wheat!! Despite noticeable reductions in carryouts the wheat market has a hard time getting anything going. Recent areas of concern (both US and Global) are forecasted for beneficial moisture relief. If the relief fails to materialize wheat prices should be able to rebound. Maybe that’s why on the break prices held suspected support levels. Weekly export sales were nothing short of awful.
I’m told the Texas Gulf is looking for wheat. Not much happens with the bids at NOLA. Interior bids remain quiet. Chgo spreads, July forward are trying to stabilize after their recent slide. KC spreads ran mostly steady on the day but still soft looking.
July Chgo wheat came within a couple of cents of filling a gap at the $4.98 level that was created nearly two weeks ago. Daily momentum indicators as well as inter-day indicators still say we’re going lower; something closer to the mid-low $4.90’s. KC charts show a similar reading with better looking support down toward the $5.15 – $5.10 level.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/11
July Chgo Wheat: $5.05 – $5.25
July KC Wheat: $5.30 – $5.50
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