Wheat Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary

March Chgo Wheat closes 6 cents higher ($4.24 ¾), May 5 cents higher ($4.43 ¾) and July 5 ¼ cents higher ($4.58 ½)

March KC Wheat closes 7 ¼ cents higher ($4.51 ¼), May 6 ½ cents higher ($4.63 ½) and July 6 ¼ cents higher ($4.75)

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – Egypt buys 535 K T. wheat; 235 K T. Russian, 120 K T. Romanian, 120 K T. French and 60 K T. Ukraine.

Chgo Wheat deliveries 958 (more than expected) – KC Wheat deliveries 145 (less than expected)

Granted none of rumor mongering around the renewable fuels program directly impacted the wheat market it too went along for the ride.  Chgo deliveries were much bigger than expected but then again there’s the old adage to buy big deliveries in a depressed market.  The rationale is the big deliveries were a monkey on the market’s back and now it is off.  KC deliveries came in lighter than expected and that in itself was supportive to that market.  Egypt was in for wheat overnite and the 535 K T. they took was a big amount.  The US had a flat price offer of $197.50 per T and it was the 2nd lowest flat price offer.  Unfortunately when freight was added in the offer was out of the ball park.

Interior cash markets ran steady to weaker on Tuesday.  Interior Kansas bids saw no change but Oklahoma bids were weaker.  The SRW market at the Gulf continues to be a non-event while the HRW market at the Gulf weakened considerably.  Spreads came back modestly from Monday’s bashing but not quite enough to convince me that they aren’t going to stay wide for a while.

Like the rest of the Ag sector’s technical price action I’m not wild about what I saw on Tuesday.   Where the flat price closed in relation to its highs of the day suggests all we saw was a Knee-Jerk reaction for whatever the reason.  We have to remember that technical analysis is all about price action, not news.  So with that said I’m not sure the recent probing of the downside is quite over.

Daily Support & Resistance for 03/01

July Chgo Wheat: $4.51 – $4.64  

July KC Wheat: $4.66 – $4.79  

 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.