Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.24 ½), July 2 ¾ cents higher ($3.37 ½) and Dec 2 ¾ cents higher ($4.72 ½)
May KC Wheat closes 2 ¾ cents higher ($4.24), July 2¾ cents higher ($4.37) and Dec 2 ½ cents higher ($4.74)
For what it is worth – 7 out of the last 12 years the average trade estimate for the March Quarterly Wheat Stocks report has been too high while the average trade estimate for Prospective Wheat Plantings has been too low 7 out of the last 12 years
As I write this commentary some of the best rains of the season are happening in western Kansas and the Oklahoma, Texas panhandles. This has been widely anticipated so what we saw today was a bit of “sell the rumor, buy the fact” type trading. In other words the trade we saw today was mostly technical in nature. I’m told there are still 1 or 2 more rain events out there so my bias going forward into Friday is to see a consolidating type trade. I’d like to say we could see some further short covering in the Chgo market given the rather large net short spec position. I have to think the KC market is pretty well liquidated by now. Let’s stick with the consolidation idea for now.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/29
July Chgo Wheat: $4.33 – $4.43
July KC Wheat: $4.32 – $4.45
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