Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 1 cent higher ($4.25 ½), July 1 cents higher ($3.38 ½) and Dec 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.73 ¾)
May KC Wheat closes ½ cent lower ($4.23 ½), July ½ cent lower ($4.36 ½) and Dec ¼ cent higher ($4.74 ¼))
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected; new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected
It seemed like the big feature in US wheat futures was inter-market spreading among the different varieties. Mpls wheat, the spring contract, was noticeably higher while KC was fractionally lower and Chgo a bit higher. For what is worth it is still raining in Kansas and that keeps the KC contract from sustaining anything on the upside. The Chgo market is all about spec short covering on breaks as they are big shorts here. I think the Mpls is all about quality protein demand as well as the fear of noticeably lower acres this spring. As far as the Chgo and KC markets are concerned don’t hold your breath for anything of substance until we see what the USDA has to say on Friday.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet as do the respective export markets. The intra-market spread is quiet for both Chgo and KC. As I said earlier it appears the inter-market spread trade remains the focus.
For the 1 ½ days I have to think we’re going nowhere fast. Chgo has a slight bias for some short covering due to the sizeable spec short position. I’m thinking the spec trade is probably pretty flat in KC. All I can say at this point is to have patience, see what the USDA has to say on Friday and go from there.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/30
July Chgo Wheat: $4.33 – $4.42
July KC Wheat: $4.32 – $4.45
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.