Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 4 ¾ cents higher ($4.28 ¾), July 5 ½ cents higher ($4.41 ¾) and Dec 4 ¾ cents higher ($4.74 ¾)
May KC Wheat closes 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.25 ½), July 4 cents higher ($4.38 ¼) and Dec 3 ½ cents higher ($4.77 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 641.3 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected
US Winter Wheat Conditions – 53% GE (+2%) vs. 56% last year vs. 52% expected
US Winter Wheat Headed – 9% vs. 4% last year
US Spring Wheat Planted week ending 4/09 – 5% vs. 12% last year vs. 11% average – trade was expecting 12% planted
It looked like a day (Monday) of inter-market spreading; feed grains vs. oilseeds. New news involving US wheat remains slight. Trade is expecting a slight hike in winter wheat conditions due to recent rains in the central southern Plains. Minor weakness in the US dollar lent minor support. The spring wheat planted number came in noticeably lower than expected – this is probably something to monitor going forward as a loss in spring wheat acres may get us more soybean acres especially in the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Interior cash wheat markets don’t do a whole lot; if anything maybe a shade better. The Gulf market for HRW continues to show improvement while the export market for SRW does little. Chgo spreads were softer upfront due to the ongoing index fund roll. KC spreads ran mixed to better. Maybe it’s my imagination but given the decades’ low acres old crop/new crop spreads should remain biased to widen.
Flat price wheat continues to honor suspected support levels; levels that held the market in late March. The only basis for a rally that I know of is the low acres. The immediate technical look suggests momentum is trying to shift higher. I’m not sure the market is going anywhere of substance but as long as suspected support levels hold shorts will be inclined to cover.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/11
July Chgo Wheat: $4.37 – $4.48
July KC Wheat: $4.33 – $4.45
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.