Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.05 ¾), Dec 2 ½ cents higher ($5.29 ¼) and March 3 cents higher ($5.49 ½)
Sept KC Wheat closes 3½ cents higher ($5.03 ¾), Dec 3 ½ cents higher ($5.30 ¼) and March 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.47 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 669.5 K T. old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Strong weekly export sales and a continued weak US Dollar finally has the KC and Chgo wheat markets trying to realize some support. We saw new lows for the move Thursday night but prices were able to bounce back during the day session. It was a real choppy trade for most of the day as prices went back and forth from positive to negative. A minor burst of short covering was noted on the close.
Cash markets remain quiet. If I had to put a direction on the basis it is softer. Chgo spreads ran fractionally mixed while KC spreads continue to widen in fractional increments.
On July 11th Sept Chgo Wheat interim high was $5.59 ¼, today’s low $4.95 with a barely a hiccup in between. On July 11th Sept KC wheat saw an interim high of $5.65, today’s low was $4.93 ¾ with barely a hiccup in between. Today’s price action registered a minor reversal for the aforementioned break. I have to think today’s reversal was mostly technical in nature as today’s lows were flirting with, if not at, previous upside breakout levels. I’m not sure we are going to see immediate follow through but I will be willing to buy any easy retracement of today’s rally.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/21
Sept Chgo Wheat: $5.00 – $5.18
Sept KC Wheat: $4.99 – $5.15


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