Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 2 ½ cents higher ($4.59 ½), Dec 2 ¾ cents higher ($4.86 ¾) and March 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.07 ½)
Sept KC Wheat closes 3¼ cents higher ($4.63 ¾), Dec 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.91) and March 3 ½ cents higher ($5.09)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Flat price wheat, Chgo and KC, continues to hold at suspected support levels. Efforts to rally out of the current hole, however, continue to be lacking. In recent days I’ve alluded to the idea that tomorrow’s USDA report is going to come down to the US vs. the rest of the exporting World. Most believe the US crop is coming down – the “but” is whether or not it comes down enough to put a noticeable dent in the World wheat stocks. See the attached PDF file for all of the trades’ estimates.
It seems as if the Oklahoma bid for wheat is improving. I’m told it is being led by the millers. The Gulf market for wheat improves for HRW (sounds like competition) but does little for SRW. Chgo spreads continue to be slack looking while KC spreads appear to be trying to make a low – let’s see if tomorrow’s report can either confirm or deny.
Both the price action and daily technical indicators are trying to suggest the wheat market is in the process of making interim lows. In other words the month long sell-off may be coming to an end. Yes, we can still see some additional downside but from a time frame not for long. Closes over Tuesday’s highs will go far in confirming this idea.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/10
Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.75 – $5.05
Dec KC Wheat: $4.79 – $5.09
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