Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 6 ½ cents lower ($4.09 ½) Dec 5 ½ cents lower ($4.37) and March 5 cents lower ($4.60 ¼)
Sept KC Wheat closes 6 ¾ cents lower ($4.07 ¾), Dec 6 ½ cents lower ($4.35 ¾) and March 6 ½ cents lower ($4.54 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 583.1 K T. vs. 490-625 K T. expected
Weekly Spring Wheat Crop Rating & Progress – 34% GE (+1%) vs. 33% expected vs. 66% year ago – Harvested – 58% vs. 51% 5-year average
Funds continue to jump all over the wheat varieties. Mpls leads the way down with continued liquidation and KC follows to a lesser extent. In Chgo funds add to their existing shorts. The rationale for lower prices continues to be more than ample supply especially from our exporting competition. Both Chgo and KC continue to explore new contract low ground.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. Bids for better protein continue to be firm. The SRW market at the Gulf remains quiet with no bias one way of the other while bids for HRW continue to be firm. Chgo spreads continue to be soft and KC spreads are not much better.
So how low can you go – I guess Mortimer is not yet done selling. The 14-day RSI for Dec Chgo wheat is 23.5 and Dec KC 21.5. Textbooks suggest these are oversold markets but nothing in the price action suggests that. GET these RSI counts in the high teens and then I’ll advocate taking a shot at being a hero.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/22
Dec Chgo Wheat: ??? – $4.47
Dec KC Wheat: ??? – $4.45
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