Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 7 ¼ cents lower ($4.02 ¼) Dec 8 cents lower ($4.29) and March 7 ½ cents lower ($4.52 ¾)
Sept KC Wheat closes 8¾ cents lower ($3.99), Dec 8 ¾ cents lower ($4.27) and March 8 ¾ cents lower ($4.45 ½)
The nose-dive continues as the export competition weighs on US prices. On the August USDA report Russian wheat production was raised by 5.5 M T. Russia now talks about their crop size being even larger. Talk out of Western Europe is about poor quality; going to feed quality. Both of these issues compete with US origin. Many will talk about how US FOB prices for US origin are competitive – when freight is added in they are not.
Advertised cash prices HRW remain unchanged while export values for HRW continue to maintain a firm bias. Toledo jacks their bid for SRW while other locations run unchanged. Sept Chgo gains on Dec Chgo while Dec Chgo forward continues to widen. KC spreads remain wide with little price movement.
The 14-day RSI for Dec KC wheat is 19.5; Dec Chgo reads 21.5. Get the Chgo market below 20 along with the KC market and I’ll advocate trying to be a hero. Just remember that when you’re trying to pick bottoms you don’t take home a loser as there is always a tomorrow.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/23
Dec Chgo Wheat: ??? – $4.40 ($4.47)
Dec KC Wheat: ??? – $4.40 ($4.45)
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