Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.20 ¾)), Dec 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.43 ¼) and March ¾ cent higher ($4.62 ¾)
Sept KC Wheat closes 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.18 ¼), Dec 2 ½ cents higher ($4.44 ¼) and March 2 ½ cents higher ($4.61 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 350-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
It appears that the short covering we saw on Tuesday could only take us so far on Wednesday. For the last few weeks I’ve been using $4.50 (Dec Chgo) as an upside pivot point. $4.50 stopped Dec Chgo wheat cold on Wednesday. The same can be said for the Dec KC as well. AS much as I thought the USDA World wheat numbers were a step in the right direction as far as getting US wheat off of its can we still need to see better demand. I do believe our worst case scenario is a trading range affair with a bias to the top side. I think we’ve enough spec shorts in this market that when they frustrated due to the lack of new downside we’ll start moving higher.
The interior cash SRW market gets a bump higher in Decatur, IN – all other locations remain quiet. Chgo spreads improve once again. Granted they are setting the world on fire but they slowly but surely trying to hang onto higher momentum – flat price short covering, if it continues, sill help dramatically. The interior Cash HRW is firm for quality and that holds true down a the Gulf. KC spreads, however, struggle to show any noticeable improvement.
The flat price wheat market continues to show me signs of trying to bottom but when push comes to shove we don’t get the follow through. The last minor correction we saw prior to yesterday’s suggestive interim upside reversal suggests Dec Chgo wheat could make a run to the mid-high $4.60’s. Conclusive closes above $4.50 should make that happen. What will prompt it remains to be seen.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/14
Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.35 – $4.50 (?)
Dec KC Wheat: $4.35 – $4.50 (?)
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