Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

September Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents higher ($8.52 ¾), Nov 6 ½ cents higher ($8.65 ¾) & Jan 6 cents higher ($8.79)

September Soybean Meal closed $2.5 higher ($294.0), Oct $2.5 higher ($296.1) & Dec $2.7 higher ($299.7)

September Soybean Oil closed 10 pts higher ($28.11), Oct 10 pts higher ($28.24) & Dec 10 pts higher ($28.45)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -200+100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 350-900 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected

Early in the day session it looked like the trade went on a head-hunting mission for sell stops in the soybean and soybean meal markets as new lows were registered for the current sell-off. Follow through selling was non-existent and short covering ensued. We still have the weather worries that we may run out of time before the soybean crop is finished but so far I don’t see anyone putting out any new frost talk. Temps will remain cool for the next number of days but no frost talk. Word is coming out of Argentina that the producer there has turned into a tight holder of his soybeans as a hedge against the sinking Argentine peso. That in turn has prompted the idea that some Meal business may get shifted to the US. I see nothing new on the US/China trade talks. The US says China called us to restart talks and China says they don’t know of any calls being made. Just who is BSing who? The bottomline to today’s action is that decent looking reversals were registered suggesting stabilization is our worst case scenario for the next number days.

Interior soybean basis levels are either steady or lower. Movement remains minimal at best. The Gulf is stable at recent weak levels. Soybean spreads ran steady upfront; had a slight bullish bias moving forward. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior continue to look for buyers. Export offers for meal are fully steady. Meal spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day.

Today’s reversals in both soybeans and soybean meal suggest our worst case scenario for the next number of days is stabilization. The spec trade is decent sized net short so some short covering/stabilization ahead of the 3-day weekend would not be surprising. What would be surprising is a major rally. A test of the $8.80 level for November beans would be about the best I could expect at this point in time. $305.0-$306.0 is about the best I would expect for Dec meal. Dec bean oil should be no worse than $28.00 but no better than $29.00.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/29

Nov Soybeans: $8.58 – $8.72

Dec Soybean Meal: $296.5 – $302.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.20 – $28.70

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.