Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

September Soybeans closed 3 ½ cents higher ($8.56 ¼), Nov 2 ¾ cents higher ($8.68 ½) & Jan 2 ½ cents higher ($8.81 ½)

September Soybean Meal closed $2.0 lower ($292.0), Oct $1.8 lower ($294.3) & Dec $1.7 lower ($298.0)

September Soybean Oil closed 26 pts higher ($28.37), Oct 13 pts higher ($28.37) & Dec 13 pts higher ($28.58)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 95.2 K T. old crop vs. -200+100 K T. expected – 353.1 K T. new crop vs. 350-900 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 52.6 K T. old crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected – 245.4 K T. new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 9.2 K T. old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – 1.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected

Weekly export sales were deemed disappointing for new crop soybeans but good for new crop soybean meal. It was interesting to note that new crop meal sales one year ago, in the same time frame, were quite good as well, 500 K T. During the session the WH talked about a phone call this afternoon with the Chinese; a higher level phone call. I’m not sure what “higher level” means. The late maturity to the soybean crop continues to be worrisome but as I mentioned earlier there is no frost talk at least through mid-September.

The interior soybean basis runs mixed to steady. the changes that I saw had the Ohio River easing 2 cents and Savanna, IL improving by 8 cents and Davenport, IA easing by 4 cents. the Gulf appeared mostly steady at its midday posting. Soybean spreads showed a slightly bullish bias beginning with the nearby Sept and going all the way out to the 2020 new crop. Meal spreads ran opposite of the soybeans spreads as they saw fractional easing all the way out to the new crop.

Soybeans managed some slight follow through keying off of Wednesday’s technical reversal. Note the description as slight as flat price volume did not appear to be much to write home about when trying to rally. Soybean meal saw early upside follow through but then failed. As of this writing I think I’m being generous calling Dec meal a $295.0-$305.0 trading affair. Yesterday I called Dec bean oil no worse than $28.00 and no better than $29.00 – I’ll still go with this idea for the time being.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/30

Nov Soybeans: $8.59 – $8.74

Dec Soybean Meal: $295.0 – $301.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.30 – $29.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.