Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed ¾ cent higher ($9.34), March ¾ cent higher ($9.59 ¾) & July 1 ¼ cents higher ($9.76 ¾)

December Soybean Meal closed $0.8 lower ($306.9), March $1.0 lower ($313.4) & July $1.5 lower ($320.3)

December Soybean Oil closed 37 pts higher ($30.85), March 35 pts higher ($31.31) & July 34 pts higher ($31.88)

Overnight China releases 10.0 M T. of duty free soybean import licenses available to state owned crushers, privately owned crushers and major international trading houses with crushing plants in China

The impact of the China news was felt during the Monday night session as prices rallied from the low $9.30’s to the mid $9.40’s (Nov). Unfortunately for the bulls those gains were almost completely given back during the Tuesday day session. The discussion around the China news was whether or not if they need those soybeans. The thought is that China is pretty much covered for Nov and Dec leaving open January. Usually by February Brazil’s new crop is coming online and without major crop problems their prices undercut US prices by a fairly wide margin. Adding to this I recall rhetoric for the “Phase One” deal that China would buy on a “as needed” basis. If it weren’t for bean oil surging to the $31.00 level (Dec) I have to think the soybean market could have easily finished lower given the meal market’s feeble performance.

With the exception of Decatur, IL (down 5 cents) all other interior soybean basis locations that I track are either steady or higher. The gulf continues to edge higher. The upfront spread, Nov/Jan, softens on the idea the rally has attracted some movement. Jan forward spreads ran fractionally better while the March forward spreads ran fractionally easier. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior remain depressed looking while the gulf edges slightly lower. Meal spreads saw fractional gains upfront; better gains as one went forward.

If November soybeans close below $9.27 the interim double top at the $9.45 level will almost be glaring. The strength in soybean oil is not enough to carry the soybean market higher especially when the soybean meal market is backpedaling. The $31.00 level for Dec bean oil looks like it could be some pretty stiff resistance while Dec meal continues to advertise it is no better than a $300.0 to $315.0 trading range affair.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/23

Nov Soybeans: $9.28 (?) – $9.43

Dec Soybean Meal: $303.0 – $310.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.60 – $31.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.