Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 3 ¼ cents lower ($9.02 ½), March 1 ¾ cents lower ($9.28 ½) & July 2 ¼ cents lower ($9.51 ½)

December Soybean Meal closed $1.8 higher ($304.1), March $1.8 higher ($309.4) & July $1.3 higher ($315.4)

December Soybean Oil closed 50 pts lower ($30.53), March 50 pts lower ($31.01) & July 47 pts lower ($31.64)

USDA announces 106.0 K T. of soybeans sold to unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – Delayed until Friday, Nov 15th

Once again soybeans are caught between a long profit taking soybean oil market and a short covering soybean meal market. Soybeans had spent most of the day trying to put in a constructive performance; an outside day. If the market had closed 30 minutes earlier of its normal time we would have seen an outside day with the close above the previous day’s high. Unfortunately for the bulls the WSJ ran an article shortly before 1:00 PM stating the trade talks had hit a snag over US Ag purchases. Here is the gist of that article; “Beijing balks at committing to specific purchases, resists U.S. requests for tech-transfer curbs, enforcement mechanism.” So much for yesterday’s rhetoric that suggested we are close to making a deal. Once that article came out soybeans immediately went negative on the day.  The USDA did make a daily announcement on soybeans sold to unknown (106.0 K T.) which many believe is China. There is a thought that more soybeans have been sold in recent days but individual purchases are staying under the 100.0 K T. USDA thresholds for daily reporting.

Cash soybean markets, both interior and export, continue to be firm. Movement is quite slow and yes, we do have some demand. Don’t get me wrong; the demand is not monumental but more than what is moving, being sold by the producer. Despite the late break soybean spreads did show some minor fractional improvement within the current crop year. Offers to sell cash soybean meal run unchanged in both the interior and for export while holding onto recent improvements. Meal spreads, for the most part, saw fractional improvements for the day.

Soybeans continue to honor suspected minor support levels but not much else. The same holds true for soybean meal. Soybean oil is probably no more than 25-50 points away from finding support for its current profit taking run. The goings on with the trade talks between China and the US will continue to be the focus for the soybean trade. As I said yesterday negative remarks will be treated as bearish and positive remarks will be treated as supportive.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/14

Jan Soybeans: $9.10 – $9.25

Dec Soybean Meal: $301.0 – $307.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.40 – $31.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.