Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans expired 2 ¼ cents lower ($9.00 ¼), March closed 1 cent higher ($9.29 ½) & July ¼ cent lower ($9.51 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $1.0 lower ($303.1), March $1.0 lower ($308.4) & July $1.6 lower ($313.8)

December Soybean Oil closed 25 pts higher ($30.78), March 23 pts higher ($31.24) & July 22 pts higher ($31.86)

USDA announces 129.0 K T. of soybeans sold to China

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K 0 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

It’s anyone guess as to where we are at with the US/China trade talks. My personal opinion is we are nowhere close. Sticking points exist with both parties and it does not look like either side is willing to budge. I don’t see China giving in as they need “to save face” with their citizens. I don’t see the US giving in any time soon as they too “need to save face”. The US has threatened new tariffs if China does not succumb. That won’t help anyone on either side. It appears China is buying soybeans but in relatively small lots. These small lots do add up. Weekly export sales are out in the morning. We’ll see just how many small lots they are actually buying.

The interior cash soybean market (basis) continues to be quite strong from slow movement. The midday posting from the Gulf showed some slight easing but still quite strong looking. Soybean spreads showed some improvement on the day but still mostly sideways against their recent lower end. Interior offers to sell cash soybean meal run unchanged while Gulf offers are firming. Despite the flat price finishing slightly lower meal spreads did show a faint bullish bias.

Will $9.10 (Jan) hold the current break or does the price need to go closer to $9.00. If Jan beans do challenge the $9.00 level I think they will have to give us some sort of minor rally first. Dec Meal continues honor the suspected support of $300.0. Dec bean oil is trying to suggest its recent correction may have run its course.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/15

Jan Soybeans: $9.10 (?) – $9.26

Dec Soybean Meal: $300.5 – $308.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.40 – $31.40

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