Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 8 cents lower ($9.10 ¼), March 7 ¾ cents lower ($9.23) & July 6 ¾ cents lower ($9.45 ¾)

December Soybean Meal closed $5.9 lower ($301.2), March $5.1 lower ($307.0) & July $4.9 lower ($312.6)

December Soybean Oil closed 21 pts higher ($30.64), March 22 pts higher ($31.09) & July 21 pts higher ($31.70)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.532 M T. vs. 1.000-1.500 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Progress – Harvested – 91% vs. 91% expected vs. 95% 5-year average

Despite the assurances from the WH minions that ongoing trade talks with China are “constructive” soybean traders are asking “where’s the buying?” Sure China has bought some soybeans but only about half of what was suggested back in September, October. From what I read China really doesn’t need any soybeans right now as it is being reported that ports are clogged with previous contracted loads. The most recent CFTC report suggested the managed money sector is still a minor net long in soybeans. At the rate this market is going south it won’t be long before this sector becomes a minor short. On Friday the meal market tried to poke its nose up; it failed miserably on Monday. With daily losses such as we saw in the meal market today its very difficult for soybeans to rally even if bean oil is on the plus side. For what it is worth the weather in SA for its recently planted crop is beneficial. This is the time year when we focus on export demand and SA weather. Neither one of these categories is giving us reason for ownership at this time.

Interior cash soybean markets continue to show a firm bias. It’s all about the lack of movement not so much demand. The midday posting at the Gulf did show some minor easing from Friday’s season’s high. Spreads within the current crop year were on the defensive Monday. It was a mixed result vs. the new crop. The meal market’s cash offerings for both domestic and export ran unchanged. Meal spreads got ugly suggesting recent improvements have run their course.

In recent weeks the pattern has been to see firm soybean and soybean meal prices firm on Friday and Sunday night only to see those gains erased in the early part of the week. That pattern held true to form today. The next level of support for Jan soybeans is $9.07 to $9.05 followed by $8.97 – $8.96. Given the price action in Dec meal of late I’m not sure $300.0-$298.0 will hold the next time it is tested. I’m not sure bean oil is going to be much of savior as it too appears headed lower; something closer to $30.00 (Dec)

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/19

Jan Soybeans: $9.05 ($9.00) – $9.19

Dec Soybean Meal: $298.0 (?) – $305.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.20 – $31.00

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